Making Sense of the New U.S. Tariffs on Japan: Chaos or Strategy?

By Max Hodges, CEO of White Rabbit Japan

The past week has been a whirlwind for anyone importing goods from Japan. With the announcement of a sweeping 24% tariff on all Japanese goods over $800, many of us were left scratching our heads: Why now? Why Japan? Why hit one of America’s closest allies with tariffs that seem, frankly, insane?

At first glance, this might look like another erratic Trump move—blunt, destructive, and poorly timed. But behind the noise, there’s a much bigger game being played. And understanding that game may help all of us prepare for what could be a major shift in how the global economy works.

According to Trump’s new economic team—especially Scott Bessent, his Treasury Secretary, and Steven Miran, his top economic advisor—tariff chaos is the point. In their eyes, the U.S. is too reliant on imports, too deindustrialized, and too exposed if conflict ever arises with major rivals like China.

Their goal? Shock the system. By slapping high tariffs not just on foes but on friends, they’re creating negotiating leverage—what they call the “third leg of the stool” (the other two being monetary policy and military power). It’s messy, it’s painful, and yes, it’s deliberate.

An Unshakable Bargaining Position

A big part of this strategy hinges on the U.S. belief that its massive consumer market is irreplaceable—that no other country can offer comparable sales potential. As a result, smaller economies (and even major allies) can’t easily afford to lose access to American consumers, leaving them few choices but to make concessions or face steep tariffs.

The next step in their vision involves enforcing so-called “reciprocal tariffs.” The idea is that if other countries impose tariffs on U.S. goods, the U.S. responds in kind. But in cases like Japan, where tariffs are already low and reciprocal due to existing agreements, this approach feels more like a justification for pressure than a correction of imbalance.

In practice, it may still push trading partners like Japan or the EU to rethink their reliance on the U.S. market, but it also risks triggering retaliation that could harm U.S. exporters—especially in sectors that have already benefited from reduced tariffs.

Ultimately, Trump’s team may be aiming for something akin to a new Bretton Woods or Plaza Accord—a grand global bargain where countries “opt in” to a U.S.-centered economic system. Those who do (the so-called “green countries”) might peg their currencies to the dollar, open their markets, and accept U.S. oversight in exchange for market access, dollar liquidity, and military protection.

Sound familiar? That’s how things worked in the 1940s and again in the 1980s.

But today, the world is less trusting. Allies recall deals like NAFTA and TPP being abandoned, and they hear Trump say things like, “Our friends have been worse than our enemies.” So the big question is: Will anyone sign up for this new order?

You might wonder, What does all this geopolitical maneuvering have to do with my anime figures or skincare orders from Japan?

A lot, actually.

1. These tariffs are part of a larger push to reindustrialize the U.S.
   Even if it means making life harder for importers and consumers in the short term.

2. Trade policy is now a highly political tool.
   It’s being used to force structural changes on a global scale—so if you’re importing from Japan, you’re caught in the middle of this massive shift.

3. Japan, despite being a close ally, is in the crossfire
   —not because of bad blood, but because it represents the kind of trade imbalance the Trump team wants to fix. No one is off-limits if the endgame is reshaping global supply chains.

4. Preventing "tariff dodging" through third countries. Part of the motivation behind broad tariffs on allies like Japan and Mexico may be to close potential loopholes where Chinese goods could be minimally processed or transshipped through these countries to avoid stricter China-specific tariffs. This "trade deflection" concern means even legitimate Japanese products face higher barriers.

Right now, the $800 de minimis exemption is still in place for Japan—meaning smaller packages are not subject to tariffs. But that could change quickly, especially if Japan doesn’t land in the “green bucket” of trusted partners in Trump’s emerging order.

We don’t know if this grand plan will succeed. It might bring about a new, stable global system—or it might fracture the one we have. Either way, 2025 isn’t just about tariffs—it could be the start of a whole new world order.

In the meantime, we’ll keep helping you navigate this chaos—one shipment at a time.

Sources:
A Trump adviser on how the international economic system should change

The global trading system needs new rules, not tariffs, say Wally Adeyemo and Joshua Zoffer